These graphs include July-September fire season anomaly hindcasts and forecasts in the Western Amazon. The incidence is on a standardized scale and is based on the north tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal forecast issued in March, April, May and June. Positive values indicate an expected active fire season and negative values stand for a mild fire season.
March forecast uses July-September SST forecast from the NCEP CFSv2 General Circulation Model temperature field to calculate the NTA index and predict the JAS fire season.
Same is done in April, May and June. As we advance in the seasons, the more accurate the forecast is expected to be.
Use the sliders in the Seasonal Fire Forecast tab at the top of the page to select initial conditions and forecast year.
Documentation: Fernandes, K., et al. (2011), North Tropical Atlantic influence on western Amazon fire season variability, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, doi:10.1029/2011gl047392
The July – September 2020 forecast points to an active fire season in most of the western Amazon – much of central and southern Peru, northern Bolivia and the Brazilian states of Acre and Rondônia.
This year’s forecast indicate an active fire season of similar magnitude to those of 2005 and 2010, when widespread fires were observed in the region.
There are some isolated negative (less active fire season) pixels in the map, but the results should be interpreted in terms of predominant behavior rather than individual values. Areas without a forecast represent regions where fires are either rare during the July-September season or the model has low prediction skill.
A more detailed discussion can be found at: https://servir.ciat.cgiar.org/climate-forecast-points-to-an-active-fire-season-in-the-western-amazon/